Special Session of the Scientific Committee
Agenda Item 5. REVIEW OF ROBUSTNESS AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSES
Background:
The development of candidate bigeye MPs has highlighted uncertainties associated with catches from fisheries outside direct MP control, including domestic fisheries in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam. BMW02 requested the SSP to undertake robustness and sensitivity analyses for the narrowed range of candidate bigeye MP options identified through the Workshop, particularly to assess how plausible changes in catches from fisheries outside MP control could affect management outputs for MP-managed longline and purse seine fisheries. BMW02 also noted the potential implications of substantial revisions to historical catch data in the Western Pacific East Asia (WPEA) region for MSE results. Completion of outstanding MSY-based performance indicators was considered desirable, along with the provision of further information on the relative contributions of fisheries to stock depletion, subject to the BMW02’s prioritisation of scientific work before WCPFC23. That prioritized list of requests for the SSP is available in the BMW02 summary report.
SSSC01 Action:
SSSC01 will review the available robustness and sensitivity analyses requested by BMW02 for the refined candidate MPs, particularly the effects of alternative catch assumptions for fisheries outside MP control on stock outcomes, LRP risk and management outputs for MP-managed longline and purse seine fisheries. Consideration may be given to potential impacts of these uncertainties on candidate MP performance, particularly LRP risk and projected management outcomes.