Special Session of the Scientific Committee

Background:

SC22 reviewed the revised Stock Synthesis-based estimation method (EM) for the bigeye management strategy evaluation (MSE) and supported its use in principle, subject to further testing against the revised operating model (OM) reference set. Following SC22's request to expand the OM uncertainty range towards lower depletion levels, further evaluation of EM performance against the revised OMs was identified as necessary. BMW02 noted the ongoing work to evaluate the revised EM, with results to be considered by the Special SC Session. The robustness of the EM is important because its estimates of stock status provide inputs to the harvest control rules (HCRs) used to determine management outputs.

SSSC01 Action: 

Noting that the EM works in partnership with the HCR design to define appropriate MP outputs, SSSC01 will review the performance of the revised EM against the updated OM reference set, including convergence, estimation bias, precision and its ability to track changes in stock status, particularly under lower-depletion scenarios and near the limit reference point (LRP). SSSC01 may consider implications of any remaining estimation errors on MP performance, provide scientific advice on the suitability of the EM for the proposed bigeye MP, and consider recommending the continued application of the Estimation Method.